Romney’s Path to Victory: It’s Not Time to Fall in Line, Yet!
The Establishment is pushing hard for the nomination of former Gov. Mitt Romney. The national news media and pundits are pushing the narrative that Romney is the provisional winner of the GOP primary. So-called “voices of reason” are now calling for GOP primary voters to start “falling in line” behind Romney, even before the results of the New Hampshire primary have been certified. In this cycle, we MUST be determined to not let the media and The Establishment tell us who our nominee “will be”. With every fiber of our being, as the heart and soul of the nation’s conservative movement, we must insist that the nominee of the party MUST be of OUR choosing!
This is not the time to “fall in line”, but to continue to fight through an elongated primary process, and nominate a true conservative to head the GOP ticket – whether that will be Gingrich, Santorum, or Perry is yet to be determined. And let me say that Huntsman cannot be considered a conservative and Ron Paul’s foreign policy positions unfortunately disqualify him to head the ticket.
With a consistent 75% of GOP primary voters rejecting the idea of Romney becoming the nominee, Romney’s path to victory depends solely on his ability to use his abundant financial advantage to simply outlast the other contenders. He is being rejected!
Therefore, what those of us that want a true conservative have to be on guard against is Romney’s strategy of surviving the inevitable attrition. We have to understand that the inevitable attrition can actually play to our advantage.
As candidates begin to drop out because of a lack of support – which means a lack of funds and eventually a bone-dry war chest – we’ll start to observe where the departed candidates’ support begins to shift. For example, as Herman Cain exited, it was easy to track his supporters flocking primarily to Newt, initially. Bachmann’s support was so tepid at her exit, it was a little more difficult to observe the shifting of voters. But, we know that a shifting took place. The same pattern will repeat as low-man exits with the completion of each states march to the polls and undecided voters start making commitments.
Because of the majority’s rejection of the Romney campaign, at this point in the competition, it’s reasonable to expect that the majority of shifting supporters will choose another candidate other than Romney, and the polling results and subsequent votes will reflect this shifting and sentiment.
Thus, as the field narrows and sharpens, Romney will potentially break his hard ceiling of 25%, but his climb will not surpass the support of his opposition.
The field will eventually narrow to three competitors: Romney, Paul, and the true conservative candidate. Romney will be there because of his hard cash, period. Paul will be there because of his zealous supporters and his ability to maintain a respectable revenue stream from them that will keep his campaign alive even until the national convention. The relevant question will be who will be the conservative candidate.
Now here’s Romney’s path to victory… He prevails only if the true conservative candidate – for some unforeseen reason – can’t endure and Romney faces only Ron Paul. If it’s Romney v. Paul, then the GOP primary voters would vote Romney over Paul, if for no other reason than the illogical foreign policy stance of the isolationist, Ron Paul. Paul can easily maintain his 20% support nationally. Romney’s support could rise as high as 30-35% nationally as Perry, Santorum, Huntsman, and Gingrich exit stage right until only one is remaining. The conservative survivor will waltz to the nomination with a near or convincing majority of the vote.
It’s NOT time to fall in line! It’s time that we insist that Romney play the full four quarters of the game and earn the nomination. And, three states out of 50 cannot meet that standard! We have to be patient and vigilant!