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Romney’s Path to Victory: It’s Not Time to Fall in Line, Yet!

Submitted by on January 11, 2012 – 9:06 pm12 Comments

The Establishment is pushing hard for the nomination of former Gov. Mitt Romney. The national news media and pundits are pushing the narrative that Romney is the provisional winner of the GOP primary.  So-called “voices of reason” are now calling for GOP primary voters to start “falling in line” behind Romney, even before the results of the New Hampshire primary have been certified.  In this cycle, we MUST be determined to not let the media and The Establishment tell us who our nominee “will be”.  With every fiber of our being, as the heart and soul of the nation’s conservative movement, we must insist that the nominee of the party MUST be of OUR choosing!

This is not the time to “fall in line”, but to continue to fight through an elongated primary process, and nominate a true conservative to head the GOP ticket – whether that will be Gingrich, Santorum, or Perry is yet to be determined. And let me say that Huntsman cannot be considered a conservative and Ron Paul’s foreign policy positions unfortunately disqualify him to head the ticket.

With a consistent 75% of GOP primary voters rejecting the idea of Romney becoming the nominee, Romney’s path to victory depends solely on his ability to use his abundant financial advantage to simply outlast the other contenders.  He is being rejected!

Therefore, what those of us that want a true conservative have to be on guard against is Romney’s strategy of surviving the inevitable attrition. We have to understand that the inevitable attrition can actually play to our advantage.

As candidates begin to drop out because of a lack of support – which means a lack of funds and eventually a bone-dry war chest – we’ll start to observe where the departed candidates’ support begins to shift.  For example, as Herman Cain exited, it was easy to track his supporters flocking primarily to Newt, initially.  Bachmann’s support was so tepid at her exit, it was a little more difficult to observe the shifting of voters.  But, we know that a shifting took place.  The same pattern will repeat as low-man exits with the completion of each states march to the polls and undecided voters start making commitments.

Because of the majority’s rejection of the Romney campaign, at this point in the competition, it’s reasonable to expect that the majority of shifting supporters will choose another candidate other than Romney, and the polling results and subsequent votes will reflect this shifting and sentiment.

Thus, as the field narrows and sharpens, Romney will potentially break his hard ceiling of 25%, but his climb will not surpass the support of his opposition.

The field will eventually narrow to three competitors: Romney, Paul, and the true conservative candidate.  Romney will be there because of his hard cash, period.  Paul will be there because of his zealous supporters and his ability to maintain a respectable revenue stream from them that will keep his campaign alive even until the national convention.  The relevant question will be who will be the conservative candidate.

Now here’s Romney’s path to victory…  He prevails only if the true conservative candidate – for some unforeseen reason – can’t endure and Romney faces only Ron Paul.  If it’s Romney v. Paul, then the GOP primary voters would vote Romney over Paul, if for no other reason than the illogical foreign policy stance of the isolationist, Ron Paul.  Paul can easily maintain his 20% support nationally.  Romney’s support could rise as high as 30-35% nationally as Perry, Santorum, Huntsman, and Gingrich exit stage right until only one is remaining.  The conservative survivor will waltz to the nomination with a near or convincing majority of the vote.

It’s NOT time to fall in line!  It’s time that we insist that Romney play the full four quarters of the game and earn the nomination.  And, three states out of 50 cannot meet that standard!  We have to be patient and vigilant!

12 Comments »

  • Steve Grimes says:

    I hope that the scenario plays out the way you envision. However, I believe that your comment “insist that Romney play the full four quarters and earn the nomination” is a bit off base. Whether or not he is our candidate of choice, if he wins he will have done so by having followed his strategy. If that strategy includes having played the media and the establishment, then all the more clever on his part.

  • Joe Byrnes says:

    I totally agree with you, hopefully a REAL conservative candidate will survive long enough for the rest of the country’s Republicans to have a chance to vote for him.

  • Marie Holt says:

    I totally agree. It’s my observation that as this is going on, there’s another insidious movement to discredit Santorum on the web. Do a simple search and you’ll see what I mean. He’s being characterized as someone who will force the most stringent Catholic doctrine on everyone else (no birth control devices will be allowed, gay sex will be outlawed etc.). If we don’t get some donations and reverse publicity going, we are going to lose the young voters, independents, and a core of middle-of-the-road Republicans. The postings I am reading are really raw and ugly.

  • LeRoy Wolf says:

    I am going to wait and see, as you suggest. The idea that we should allow the media and the left to choose our candidate is asinine. I was very disturbed at the publics reaction to the allegations about Cain. I would almost suggest we elect him just to thumb our noses at the spin masters. I certainly wouldn’t have dismissed him over the medias’ contributions. I have less and less use for the leftist media as they get worse and worse. Some of them are now openly leftist. It is so obvious that they don’t bother to deny their bias any more.

  • Douglas Guynn says:

    I appears you are practicing the very action you decry in your article. In you second paragraph, you write “This is not the time to ‘fall in line’”, and in the very next sentence, tell us to exclude two of the candidates.

    I respect what you are doing for the conservative cause, but this type of statement will cost you significant credibility.

  • Rob St. John says:

    I certainly hope so, I’m certainly not in a mindset to fall in behind Romney at this point. Especially after 1 staw poll and one primary, give me a break. Now that Herman and Michelle have step aside, I am definitely supporting Rick Santorum and/or Perry. Just have to be patient and see how it turns out.

  • rick andrews says:

    My reasearch tells me the only real conservative is Ron Paul, and as to his foreign policy he belives congress should be the ones to declare war. Ron Paul realizes he would if elected would be the president, not the king. I would not be fearfull of his foreign policy because I trust Ron Paul’s CHARACTER!

    Rick Andrews

  • Jeff Sadighi says:

    Ron Paul is the most conservative member of either house of Congress since 1937:

    http://voteview.com/Is_John_Kerry_A_Liberal.htm

    ‘These scores are computed from all the roll calls cast in the House and Senate for the 1937 – 2002 period. The technical details can be found in my article “Estimating a Basic Space From A Set of Issue Scales,” American Journal of Political Science, 42 (July 1998), pp. 954-993.’

    There is nothing more conservative than strict obedience of the Constitution in a constitutional republic. I do not know of any other member of congress who has EVER been as faithful to his oath of office. If you don’t like his positions your issue is with the Constitution, not the man obeying it. IMHO

    We have had a lawless government for so long that, to some, returning to a lawful one seems strange.

    Love you Brother,

    Jeff

  • Eve in Texas says:

    This GOP voter is tired of “falling in line”, holding my nose and voting for a “lesser evil” that is still evil.

    This voter is tired of senseless, unconstitutional wars and is sick of big-government Republicans.

    This voter is voting Ron Paul. His foreign policy is one of his main attractions. Failing to see that the Military Industrial Complex and building an empire across the globe is bankrupting us, both financially and in lives and limb, is folly.

    Ron Paul 2012

  • kev says:

    “…illogical foreign policy stance of the isolationist…” ?

    You really need to do your homework on this one. Stopping wasteful, perpetual wars is not illogical, especially if these are “pre-emptive wars” (that’s what the National Socialists did to wage their wars).

    It is no wonder that Ron Paul gets double what the other candidates combined receive in donations from the military. The troops know what’s going on.

    Then there’s blowback. if the Europeans despise what the Americans do across the world, then one can imagine how the Arabs, Iranians and the rest… Do you think the majority of Libyans are grateful to the US for ousting Gaddafi and bombing Libya? The vast majority hate the US!

    In any case, with the collapse of the dollar (and that’s going to happen) you will have no money left to either police the world or for national defence.

    Ron Paul wants to cut waste on unnecessary wars to secure a stronger defence at home while trading with other countries and promoting peace BY SETTING AN EXAMPLE.

    No one likes Rambo Amerikka, believe me. Listen to what Ron Paul is saying for he is your last chance.

  • Sean Helenese says:

    Ron Paul is the only true conservitive left, media has been continuously hammering Rommney as the nominee we the people must reject that notion. Look voting records u clearly see that the rehtoric does not match, except for Ron Paul. Rommey,Gingrich,Santorum, and Perry are all Republicrats not fit for leadershiip. Foriegn policy the establishment claims that Paul is somehow a crazy nutjob but ask the military members who have sent more money to the Paul campaign than any other canidate. Whats is crazy our current foreign policy of nation building and so called democracy around the world. We are a republic wake up out of your spell America.

  • Stephen J Murphy says:

    I love you Apostle Claver but Ron Paul is not an isolationist nor is he irrational. He preaches a philosophy upon which we can all agree and that is individual FREEDOM.
    I hope you continue with your high degree of energy and intellect, I know you’re still evolving. Remain sincere and you will develop a huge following. Your article is one of the best I’ve read about the “time to fall” in; except for the comments on Ron Paul.

    Thank you for providing the forum

    Stephen J Murphy

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